{ "title": "October 2026 weather API study: interim temperature and wind results", "status": "interim", "as_of": "2026-11-02T11:45:38Z", "capture_dates": [ "2026-10-01", "2026-10-30" ], "capture_timezone": "America/New_York", "observation_collection_ends": "2026-11-04T01:00:00Z", "coverage": { "scheduled_slots": 120, "completed_slots": 115, "missed_slots": 5, "saved_provider_payloads": 9175, "unavailable_provider_payloads": 25, "saved_nws_grid_supplements": 567 }, "names": { "visualCrossing": "Visual Crossing", "pirateWeather": "Pirate Weather", "openMeteo": "Open-Meteo", "metNorway": "MET Norway", "nationalWeatherService": "NWS", "weatherKit": "Apple Weather" }, "locations": [ { "name": "New York", "station": "KJFK", "us": true }, { "name": "Los Angeles", "station": "KLAX", "us": true }, { "name": "Toronto", "station": "CYYZ", "us": false }, { "name": "London", "station": "EGLL", "us": false }, { "name": "Paris", "station": "LFPG", "us": false }, { "name": "Rome", "station": "LIRF", "us": false }, { "name": "Dubai", "station": "OMDB", "us": false }, { "name": "Singapore", "station": "WSSS", "us": false }, { "name": "Tokyo", "station": "RJTT", "us": false }, { "name": "Sydney", "station": "YSSY", "us": false }, { "name": "Rio de Janeiro", "station": "SBGL", "us": false }, { "name": "Cape Town", "station": "FACT", "us": false }, { "name": "Miami", "station": "KMIA", "us": true }, { "name": "Seattle", "station": "KSEA", "us": true }, { "name": "Chicago", "station": "KORD", "us": true } ], "units": { "temperature": "degC", "wind": "m/s" }, "leads": { "6": [ 5, 7 ], "12": [ 11, 13 ], "24": [ 23, 25 ], "48": [ 47, 49 ] }, "method": { "lead_windows": "Hours from actual provider receipt to forecast valid time; lower bound included, upper bound excluded.", "matching": "Nearest same-airport METAR within 30 minutes; later report breaks ties. Latest correction retrieved by cutoff. Raw/decoded temperature and wind must agree.", "cohorts": "global5: five providers at 15 airports; us6: all six at JFK, LAX, Miami, Seattle and Chicago. Identical cases within each metric, lead and cohort.", "missing": "Missing forecasts and invalid observations excluded from every provider in the relevant comparison. No interpolation, historical backfill or pilot captures.", "weighting": "Each matched forecast case has equal weight; per-airport counts are provided.", "uncertainty": "Selected exploratory paired UTC-day bootstrap comparisons, 5,000 resamples. Fixed airports, shared weather and overlapping forecasts limit inference.", "scope": "This month at these public airport stations; not a seasonal, neighborhood or worldwide ranking.", "rain_status": "October amount and probability rankings are withheld pending final observation and interval/event review. September rain results remain a separate historical study.", "september_difference": "September used 12 airports, 14 captures and broad 1–12/12–36/36–60 hour bands. October adds Miami, Seattle and Chicago, four daily slots and narrow 6/12/24/48 hour targets. The studies are not pooled." }, "selected_uncertainty": [ { "metric": "temperature", "cohort": "global5", "lead": 24, "provider": "Pirate Weather", "baseline": "Apple Weather", "less_error_percent": 10.292161263977572, "date_blocks": 31, "exploratory_95_percent_interval": [ 6.806807555638683, 13.751028582192381 ], "note": "Paired UTC-day bootstrap; correlated forecasts and fixed locations limit inference." }, { "metric": "temperature", "cohort": "us6", "lead": 24, "provider": "Visual Crossing", "baseline": "Apple Weather", "less_error_percent": 9.577097658532196, "date_blocks": 31, "exploratory_95_percent_interval": [ 6.255984434724649, 13.03419563747642 ], "note": "Paired UTC-day bootstrap; correlated forecasts and fixed locations limit inference." }, { "metric": "wind", "cohort": "global5", "lead": 24, "provider": "Visual Crossing", "baseline": "Pirate Weather", "less_error_percent": 3.6702957662131053, "date_blocks": 31, "exploratory_95_percent_interval": [ -0.5779736265314028, 7.953978356781266 ], "note": "Paired UTC-day bootstrap; correlated forecasts and fixed locations limit inference." } ], "provenance": { "audit_sha256": "b2aef585146094ce1df13c3f90503012be702f5ebf2ec3f9b290e40328e64c4b", "cases_sha256": "02580c2203feae8a5197cfa39c5e789dcc935812d210f278915d6861e321aec1", "forecast_verification": "All scheduled non-pilot raw forecast and NWS grid hashes checked against capture manifests; native rain derivatives also reverified." }, "results": { "global5": { "temperature": { "6": { "pooled": { "n": 3406, "unique_observations": 3406, "station_days": 465, "utc_date_blocks": 31, "valid_from": "2026-10-01T14:00:00Z", "valid_through": "2026-10-31T07:00:00Z", "scores": [ { "provider": "pirateWeather", "mae": 0.9387463300058722, "rmse": 1.244525711043853, "bias": -0.20014973576042325, "within_two": 3073, "p90_abs_error": 2.000000000000005 }, { "provider": "visualCrossing", "mae": 1.0775102759835586, "rmse": 1.3936080067833845, "bias": -0.409571344685849, "within_two": 2997, "p90_abs_error": 2.2000000000000046 }, { "provider": "weatherKit", "mae": 1.0906048150322962, "rmse": 1.4191173557142798, "bias": -0.433317674691721, "within_two": 2920, "p90_abs_error": 2.3100000000000085 }, { "provider": "metNorway", "mae": 1.238549618320611, "rmse": 1.56264095077699, "bias": -0.5950381679389317, "within_two": 2789, "p90_abs_error": 2.599999999999996 }, { "provider": "openMeteo", "mae": 1.2767469172049328, "rmse": 1.639805066970751, "bias": -0.6549031121550211, "within_two": 2757, "p90_abs_error": 2.6999999999999997 } ] }, "locations": { "KJFK": { "n": 226, "unique_observations": 226, "station_days": 31, "utc_date_blocks": 31, "valid_from": "2026-10-01T14:00:00Z", "valid_through": "2026-10-31T07:00:00Z", "scores": [ { "provider": "visualCrossing", "mae": 0.9402654867256641, "rmse": 1.1770482054173084, "bias": -0.23407079646017717, "within_two": 205, "p90_abs_error": 1.999999999999997 }, { "provider": "pirateWeather", "mae": 1.019911504424779, "rmse": 1.2726966005958145, "bias": 0.08893805309734544, "within_two": 200, "p90_abs_error": 2.1499999999999986 }, { "provider": "weatherKit", "mae": 1.2109734513274337, "rmse": 1.5806327846783392, "bias": -0.7032743362831857, "within_two": 182, "p90_abs_error": 2.6999999999999997 }, { "provider": "metNorway", "mae": 1.2716814159292036, "rmse": 1.6174655143975982, "bias": 0.4663716814159294, "within_two": 190, "p90_abs_error": 2.6999999999999997 }, { "provider": "openMeteo", "mae": 1.5889380530973451, "rmse": 2.024965857900749, "bias": -1.2738938053097346, "within_two": 153, "p90_abs_error": 3.4999999999999987 } ] }, "KLAX": { "n": 221, "unique_observations": 221, "station_days": 31, "utc_date_blocks": 31, "valid_from": "2026-10-01T14:00:00Z", "valid_through": "2026-10-31T07:00:00Z", "scores": [ { "provider": "metNorway", "mae": 1.20316742081448, "rmse": 1.55235917381413, "bias": -0.9959276018099552, "within_two": 184, "p90_abs_error": 2.3999999999999964 }, { "provider": "visualCrossing", "mae": 1.2701357466063354, "rmse": 1.5403913236136635, "bias": -0.957013574660634, "within_two": 188, "p90_abs_error": 2.400000000000012 }, { "provider": "weatherKit", "mae": 1.4600904977375568, "rmse": 1.9064076283022136, "bias": -1.189773755656109, "within_two": 161, "p90_abs_error": 3.1700000000000017 }, { "provider": "pirateWeather", "mae": 1.48212669683258, "rmse": 1.8626265938331013, "bias": -1.0871040723981908, "within_two": 167, "p90_abs_error": 2.9500000000000095 }, { "provider": "openMeteo", "mae": 1.912217194570136, "rmse": 2.440402755870377, "bias": -1.6171945701357469, "within_two": 142, "p90_abs_error": 4.000000000000002 } ] }, "CYYZ": { "n": 226, "unique_observations": 226, "station_days": 31, "utc_date_blocks": 31, "valid_from": "2026-10-01T14:00:00Z", "valid_through": "2026-10-31T07:00:00Z", "scores": [ { "provider": "visualCrossing", "mae": 0.9929203539823013, "rmse": 1.2293245861256898, "bias": -0.642477876106195, "within_two": 210, "p90_abs_error": 1.900000000000001 }, { "provider": "metNorway", "mae": 1.0278761061946904, "rmse": 1.3184698828029435, "bias": -0.5774336283185842, "within_two": 198, "p90_abs_error": 2.1999999999999966 }, { "provider": "weatherKit", "mae": 1.1444247787610624, "rmse": 1.4018211921879544, "bias": -0.6015929203539827, "within_two": 189, "p90_abs_error": 2.3799999999999994 }, { "provider": "pirateWeather", "mae": 1.4054424778761065, "rmse": 1.7644461890299465, "bias": -0.9757964601769914, "within_two": 159, "p90_abs_error": 2.8499999999999974 }, { "provider": "openMeteo", "mae": 1.411061946902655, "rmse": 1.6970171645087062, "bias": -1.135840707964602, "within_two": 173, "p90_abs_error": 2.600000000000004 } ] }, "EGLL": { "n": 228, "unique_observations": 228, "station_days": 31, "utc_date_blocks": 31, "valid_from": "2026-10-01T14:00:00Z", "valid_through": "2026-10-31T07:00:00Z", "scores": [ { "provider": "weatherKit", "mae": 0.6340789473684209, "rmse": 0.8299680293990613, "bias": -0.08820175438596517, "within_two": 221, "p90_abs_error": 1.3200000000000027 }, { "provider": "pirateWeather", "mae": 0.7118421052631579, "rmse": 0.9051751793234049, "bias": -0.13640350877192992, "within_two": 221, "p90_abs_error": 1.5000000000000016 }, { "provider": "openMeteo", "mae": 0.8030701754385965, "rmse": 0.9932005680732633, "bias": -0.13464912280701777, "within_two": 220, "p90_abs_error": 1.6000000000000014 }, { "provider": "visualCrossing", "mae": 0.8324561403508773, "rmse": 1.0387661371643275, "bias": -0.6675438596491231, "within_two": 216, "p90_abs_error": 1.6000000000000054 }, { "provider": "metNorway", "mae": 0.8732456140350877, "rmse": 1.1698140503006031, "bias": -0.5407894736842109, "within_two": 213, "p90_abs_error": 1.7000000000000013 } ] }, "LFPG": { "n": 230, "unique_observations": 230, "station_days": 31, "utc_date_blocks": 31, "valid_from": "2026-10-01T14:00:00Z", "valid_through": "2026-10-31T07:00:00Z", "scores": [ { "provider": "pirateWeather", "mae": 0.7360869565217393, "rmse": 0.9242388172460342, "bias": -0.2021739130434785, "within_two": 223, "p90_abs_error": 1.5999999999999976 }, { "provider": "visualCrossing", "mae": 0.7482608695652175, "rmse": 0.9444344983846847, "bias": -0.3656521739130439, "within_two": 221, "p90_abs_error": 1.6999999999999973 }, { "provider": "weatherKit", "mae": 0.7900869565217397, "rmse": 0.9989764326767069, "bias": -0.35313043478260936, "within_two": 219, "p90_abs_error": 1.6199999999999983 }, { "provider": "openMeteo", "mae": 0.8534782608695655, "rmse": 1.0731708401619537, "bias": -0.499565217391305, "within_two": 215, "p90_abs_error": 1.7999999999999972 }, { "provider": "metNorway", "mae": 0.8560869565217394, "rmse": 1.093955725993874, "bias": -0.48391304347826136, "within_two": 214, "p90_abs_error": 1.7000000000000013 } ] }, "LIRF": { "n": 226, "unique_observations": 226, "station_days": 31, "utc_date_blocks": 31, "valid_from": "2026-10-01T14:00:00Z", "valid_through": "2026-10-31T07:00:00Z", "scores": [ { "provider": "pirateWeather", "mae": 0.8499999999999998, "rmse": 1.1182120684773953, "bias": 0.10132743362831798, "within_two": 213, "p90_abs_error": 1.7000000000000013 }, { "provider": "weatherKit", "mae": 0.8740707964601769, "rmse": 1.1424825476485039, "bias": 0.4100884955752205, "within_two": 209, "p90_abs_error": 1.899999999999997 }, { "provider": "openMeteo", "mae": 1.3858407079646025, "rmse": 1.7490579006490923, "bias": 0.9938053097345126, "within_two": 162, "p90_abs_error": 2.8999999999999995 }, { "provider": "metNorway", "mae": 1.4243362831858408, "rmse": 1.7757087579105855, "bias": 0.9057522123893798, "within_two": 166, "p90_abs_error": 2.8999999999999995 }, { "provider": "visualCrossing", "mae": 2.1132743362831863, "rmse": 2.520184007890757, "bias": 1.612389380530973, "within_two": 122, "p90_abs_error": 4.100000000000001 } ] }, "OMDB": { "n": 228, "unique_observations": 228, "station_days": 31, "utc_date_blocks": 31, "valid_from": "2026-10-01T20:00:00Z", "valid_through": "2026-10-31T07:00:00Z", "scores": [ { "provider": "pirateWeather", "mae": 0.6557017543859653, "rmse": 0.8973401240586621, "bias": -0.41359649122807096, "within_two": 217, "p90_abs_error": 1.399999999999998 }, { "provider": "metNorway", "mae": 1.57280701754386, "rmse": 1.8767973841234524, "bias": -1.3570175438596497, "within_two": 165, "p90_abs_error": 3.000000000000003 }, { "provider": "visualCrossing", "mae": 1.6745614035087721, "rmse": 1.9478057830340922, "bias": -1.6263157894736844, "within_two": 162, "p90_abs_error": 3.000000000000003 }, { "provider": "openMeteo", "mae": 1.703070175438597, "rmse": 2.0601588254221843, "bias": -1.5662280701754394, "within_two": 153, "p90_abs_error": 3.200000000000003 }, { "provider": "weatherKit", "mae": 1.708991228070176, "rmse": 2.0931451404399484, "bias": -1.6473245614035097, "within_two": 147, "p90_abs_error": 3.4200000000000035 } ] }, "WSSS": { "n": 228, "unique_observations": 228, "station_days": 31, "utc_date_blocks": 31, "valid_from": "2026-10-01T14:00:00Z", "valid_through": "2026-10-31T07:00:00Z", "scores": [ { "provider": "pirateWeather", "mae": 0.7951754385964911, "rmse": 1.0542936439717814, "bias": 0.11622807017543785, "within_two": 217, "p90_abs_error": 1.7000000000000013 }, { "provider": "visualCrossing", "mae": 1.028947368421053, "rmse": 1.2763022245616644, "bias": -0.5131578947368431, "within_two": 203, "p90_abs_error": 2.2000000000000046 }, { "provider": "weatherKit", "mae": 1.061622807017544, "rmse": 1.3267128948130258, "bias": -0.6125000000000009, "within_two": 202, "p90_abs_error": 2.1200000000000014 }, { "provider": "openMeteo", "mae": 1.2407894736842109, "rmse": 1.552572850509873, "bias": -0.9486842105263165, "within_two": 190, "p90_abs_error": 2.600000000000004 }, { "provider": "metNorway", "mae": 1.717543859649124, "rmse": 2.0199009876724165, "bias": -1.4780701754385974, "within_two": 145, "p90_abs_error": 3.299999999999999 } ] }, "RJTT": { "n": 228, "unique_observations": 228, "station_days": 31, "utc_date_blocks": 31, "valid_from": "2026-10-01T14:00:00Z", "valid_through": "2026-10-31T07:00:00Z", "scores": [ { "provider": "visualCrossing", "mae": 0.8114035087719298, "rmse": 1.0416754385595568, "bias": -0.1640350877192995, "within_two": 218, "p90_abs_error": 1.6000000000000054 }, { "provider": "pirateWeather", "mae": 1.0828947368421051, "rmse": 1.4046445514041883, "bias": 0.6144736842105253, "within_two": 198, "p90_abs_error": 2.3999999999999964 }, { "provider": "openMeteo", "mae": 1.1495614035087731, "rmse": 1.4002036192777818, "bias": -0.6451754385964925, "within_two": 195, "p90_abs_error": 2.2000000000000006 }, { "provider": "weatherKit", "mae": 1.2201315789473688, "rmse": 1.548318980916616, "bias": -0.3221491228070188, "within_two": 180, "p90_abs_error": 2.5899999999999994 }, { "provider": "metNorway", "mae": 1.364473684210527, "rmse": 1.739240104284305, "bias": -0.8118421052631594, "within_two": 175, "p90_abs_error": 2.8999999999999995 } ] }, "YSSY": { "n": 228, "unique_observations": 228, "station_days": 31, "utc_date_blocks": 31, "valid_from": "2026-10-01T14:00:00Z", "valid_through": "2026-10-31T07:00:00Z", "scores": [ { "provider": "pirateWeather", "mae": 0.971929824561404, "rmse": 1.3265507310710978, "bias": -0.23596491228070296, "within_two": 203, "p90_abs_error": 2.1000000000000005 }, { "provider": "openMeteo", "mae": 1.1815789473684215, "rmse": 1.4529461901870107, "bias": -0.642982456140352, "within_two": 194, "p90_abs_error": 2.3000000000000043 }, { "provider": "weatherKit", "mae": 1.2619736842105262, "rmse": 1.5992557205303732, "bias": -0.562236842105264, "within_two": 183, "p90_abs_error": 2.550000000000002 }, { "provider": "metNorway", "mae": 1.2763157894736847, "rmse": 1.5602800018620147, "bias": -0.861403508771931, "within_two": 182, "p90_abs_error": 2.5 }, { "provider": "visualCrossing", "mae": 1.2960526315789482, "rmse": 1.5814577996044747, "bias": -0.9723684210526329, "within_two": 186, "p90_abs_error": 2.6999999999999917 } ] }, "SBGL": { "n": 230, "unique_observations": 230, "station_days": 31, "utc_date_blocks": 31, "valid_from": "2026-10-01T14:00:00Z", "valid_through": "2026-10-31T07:00:00Z", "scores": [ { "provider": "weatherKit", "mae": 0.7322608695652174, "rmse": 0.933504849664867, "bias": 0.062521739130434, "within_two": 222, "p90_abs_error": 1.5399999999999954 }, { "provider": "visualCrossing", "mae": 0.8413043478260872, "rmse": 1.0482905339066366, "bias": -0.47260869565217495, "within_two": 221, "p90_abs_error": 1.7000000000000013 }, { "provider": "pirateWeather", "mae": 0.8526086956521743, "rmse": 1.0776988366926525, "bias": -0.47521739130434887, "within_two": 219, "p90_abs_error": 1.7999999999999972 }, { "provider": "openMeteo", "mae": 0.9939130434782614, "rmse": 1.2298108726990087, "bias": -0.32347826086956577, "within_two": 212, "p90_abs_error": 1.8000000000000052 }, { "provider": "metNorway", "mae": 1.0695652173913048, "rmse": 1.3217906168461817, "bias": -0.6026086956521746, "within_two": 208, "p90_abs_error": 2.000000000000005 } ] }, "FACT": { "n": 224, "unique_observations": 224, "station_days": 31, "utc_date_blocks": 31, "valid_from": "2026-10-01T14:00:00Z", "valid_through": "2026-10-31T07:00:00Z", "scores": [ { "provider": "pirateWeather", "mae": 0.7419642857142857, "rmse": 0.9315405826601745, "bias": 0.04107142857142826, "within_two": 219, "p90_abs_error": 1.5000000000000016 }, { "provider": "metNorway", "mae": 0.8750000000000003, "rmse": 1.1236897131453025, "bias": 0.29910714285714246, "within_two": 207, "p90_abs_error": 1.8000000000000052 }, { "provider": "openMeteo", "mae": 1.025446428571429, "rmse": 1.3916684488155115, "bias": 0.30401785714285656, "within_two": 193, "p90_abs_error": 2.4000000000000004 }, { "provider": "weatherKit", "mae": 1.0949107142857144, "rmse": 1.35421531048163, "bias": 0.6214285714285709, "within_two": 194, "p90_abs_error": 2.0699999999999994 }, { "provider": "visualCrossing", "mae": 1.0995535714285714, "rmse": 1.4287075827974236, "bias": 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